Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Recession is over for now

At last The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research determined the end of recession which created some amount of insecurity into my life. It excatly started when got into corporate from students life and  had to experience first hand effects of it like my company conducting a eliminating exam for graduates who joined in 2007, somehow i managed it but that's a different story.
Some observations from Committee report :

The committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.
 At that time my project was with American client so faced the music and now its European client and still they haven't come out of the woods and am still facing the music
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.
Am not sure of any indicators turning pre-crisis levels
The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
Meaning last recession is over and we are into expansion phase with a slow growth

The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.
That means if any GDP drop occurs going forward implies that we might face another recession thats what people are calling it as double dip recession . For now we are safe cause of policies adopted by government is increasing consumption. But how far can government stretch to avoid double . Only time will tell it

Link of Committee report

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