Saturday, August 21, 2010

Nifty Index Analysis ...Part1

Its around the same time 3 years ago our Markets started making new highs at rapid pace and now after 3 years we in the same phase. At that time the so called Analysts predicted Nifty to reach 7000 by 2008 December. Yep it moved but towards south, Nifty was around 3500 in Dec 2008. 

“We are bullish on emerging markets and bullish on the Indian equities market as well,” 
Its Ridiculous to hear from a Chief Strategist
“We continue to like the infrastructure story; it is a global story. We are upbeat on engineering and construction services and also on steel,”
Still Countries like Greece and Spain are unable to come out of the Real Estate bubble created at that time

Anyway leaving that and its not in  my agenda to prolong that topic.Here i was looking at how Indian Markets reacted to Global Effects and how Quickly Market got a turnaround. I took a few sectors and compared how it performed vs Nifty. I had to take them out separately for scaling purpose

  1.  Below is Bank Nifty in Comparison with Nifty. Bank Nifty and Nifty Reached Peak at same time in Feb-Mar 2008. From then on slide Started and Bank Nifty Underperformed Nifty and the Lehman Crisis made Nifty to Reach its lowest point . After that it was moving together for some 1 year and off late from April2010 it started Over Performing Nifty and is setting new Highs.

     2. Infrastructure sector index also reached peak in Feb 2008 and slide started from then and it underperformed nifty by a margin till 2009 mid, But the thing which is interesting here is margin by which its underperformed is increased. That implies Infra sector has not come out of blues or Infra stocks at that time were quoting at irrational  prices. Anyway if heard of JP Morgan analyst comments and believe him then its Good time to buy selective Stocks like Noida Toll Gate,Lanco,GMR at right price. BTW whats the right price ? :) BTW check this Lodha Devlopers

     3. IT sector started lagging the market at the Peak Level and carried the same level till 2009 and now on 2010 it overtook Nifty and is Overpowering. Going Forward from good domestic demand to IT and few negatives else where i assume it will closely follow nifty 
    4. Many Like MidCaps cause its easy to identify growth stocks in it and off late MidCaps started to Over perform Nifty and is all set to give tough for nifty
    5. Realty sector just like infra sector is lagging the market and it suffered the most from the Bubble followed by crisis. Real Estate reminds me of DLF and Unitech(Alleged Scam). Both the stocks suffered a lot from real estate price crash as well as huge debt on its books. I guess the Hangover for real estate stocks is not over and still they are unable to reach the past glory .Here comes Lodha tallest building for ultra Rich  
 Thats all for now will come up with more in another post

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