I was bearish on NIFTY for a long time cause of variety of reasons like high P/E Ratio, High Interest Rates in near future,China Factor,Greece Problem etc Most of the factors are negative to Nifty and i am still wondering why all of sudden my view on market got changed after the last expiry and overnight i went from highly bearish to moderately bullish side.
I Guess it was a big mistake of changing my stance, though i was bit bearish and bought 5100 put and sold 4800 put and was kind of gamble cause am selling a put (Unlimited Risk). Then comes the Black Swan in form of Greece and made the market to drag down. And i was bit lucky to have 5100 put and made good return in it and squared of it expecting the market will not go down much.But am wrong the market is dragging down daily and my position of 4900 sell is making losses and i will be bankrupt if it breaches 4900 before that i have to make a decision.
Here are some snippets at which i made certain decisions which i like to share over here
At position A in the above pic was Expiry time in April Series and my view on market got changed from highly bearish to bullish coz the chart appeared to go up and earnings results of companies were Good and Greece was not there in my mind, cause Greece problem is made tougher by speculators who are expecting it to go bankrupt( will talk about this in another post) .Can see from A position that SMA crossed each other which was ignored by me somehow...regretting for it..anyway that's what happens to retail investors..they will be wrong in identifying the patterns..ok.. leave that for now,,
In the Fourth Rectangle is Williams indicator and highlighted region is marked in Black box with letter C , This was the time at which i was highly bearish cause the indicator touched 80+ for many days..that indicates its highly overbought and anytime it can sell off...its not that easy to predict sell off at least for me and only from historical data we can see it ..It was in overbought state for one month and for whole month of march to mid april i was bearish ,during that time market went up and i was made wrong.
Coming to the last rectangle marked with D which is the current week where we have slide in our market and Williams R is in region 0 that shows its in oversold region and now again for how long it will be that zone before there is bounce off and market going up
I expect the market to come down a bit till 4900-4800 and then expect to go up..only in-case if Greece problem is halted for some time. Will get some status on Greece by Monday Morning and hope peace prevails in market