Friday, May 7, 2010

Greece is BlackSwan for Markets

I was bearish on NIFTY for a long time cause of variety of reasons like high P/E Ratio, High Interest Rates in near future,China Factor,Greece Problem etc Most of the factors are negative to Nifty  and i am still wondering why all of sudden  my view on market got changed after the last expiry and overnight i went from highly bearish to moderately bullish side.

I Guess it was  a big mistake of changing my stance, though i was bit bearish and bought 5100 put and sold 4800 put and was kind of gamble cause am selling a put (Unlimited Risk). Then comes the Black Swan in form of Greece and made the market to drag down. And i was bit lucky to have 5100 put and made good return in it and squared of it expecting the market will not go down much.But am wrong the market is dragging down daily and my position of 4900 sell is making losses and i will be bankrupt if it breaches 4900 before that i have to make a decision.

Here are some snippets at which i made certain decisions which i like to share over here
At position A in the above pic was Expiry time in April Series and my view on market got  changed from highly bearish to bullish coz the chart appeared to go up and earnings results of companies were Good and Greece was not there in my mind, cause Greece problem is made tougher by speculators who are expecting it to go bankrupt( will talk about this in another post) .Can see from A position that SMA crossed each other which was ignored by me somehow...regretting for it..anyway that's what happens to retail investors..they will be wrong in identifying the patterns..ok.. leave that for now,,

In the Fourth Rectangle is Williams indicator and highlighted region is marked in Black box with letter C , This was the time at which i was highly bearish cause the indicator touched 80+ for many days..that indicates its highly overbought and anytime it can sell off...its not that easy to predict sell off at least for me and only from historical data we can see it ..It was in overbought state for one month and for whole month of march to mid april i was bearish ,during that time market went up and i was made wrong.

Coming to the last rectangle marked with D which is the current week where we have slide in our market and Williams R is  in region 0 that shows its in oversold region and now again  for how long it will be that zone before there is bounce off and market going up 

I expect the market to come down a bit till 4900-4800 and then expect to go up..only in-case if Greece problem is halted for some time. Will get  some status on Greece by Monday Morning and hope peace prevails in market


  1. Hey good going dude .. looks like the posts are becoming more difficult to follow as the time progresses ... u got to simplify them

    I am a whole lot curious as to what you meant by "bought 5100 put and sold 4800 put ..." .. do you trade these things on your personal account or is it for the firm you are working ???

  2. Hey LP...where do u do this technical analysis? U got an account with bloomberg or Reuters??

  3. I guess u r aware about the 1000 point intraday fall in DJIA on thursday?? Anyway, it is coz of a trading error, but still the close was 350 points below. And there is suddenly a bearish scenario in US unemployment data, after a few weeks of optimistic results. If u r looking at the world markets, these give fresh bearishness from the last week.

  4. @ Suziki ..Thanks a lot for taking time and reading my blog....Dude am trading from my account dude..just learning for now..

    @ having icici direct demat account and the dow jones fall is rumored to be mistake of a trader in citibank ,or a europe bank liquidating itself and mix of high frequency trading done by big boys...Matter is still under investigation and i guess the real facts will be covered by..coz now marker moved up and recovered