Friday, September 18, 2009

Its not Raining Here

Generally Rain will dampen the spirits of joy only when it rains at wrong time...but by this time of the year in the southern India it should rain
But that's not the case this year . As u can see from the pic already we are running a 40 % deficit rainfall on a average if this is going to continue for next couple of weeks.

Then i guess output of the kharif crop which is major crop in year is going to decrease drastically , which will lead to scarcity of rice .
now its mroe dangerous because the states which supplies rice to stock pile
are facing the drought situation.

If that is the case then it will lead to shorting in supply side..which will lead into high pirces in coming days.
That implies it will lead to higher inflation which i suspect will act as a barrier to the growth

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Baltic Dry Index is sleeping

See the link below which shows that BALTIC DRY INDEX is not at all moving.

With knowledge i have BDI is calculated on the no ships in sea which are on business mean taking cargo from one place to place ..that implies export and import activity . July early BDI was at its peak due do heavy purchase of raw materials by china to increase its stock pile and also concerns of monsoon might restrict the number of ships engaged in business so i feel it increased at that time . Now if economic activity has to increase it has to start from imports /exports ,because for any business raw material is needed to start the activity . So ships have to be in business but here in this index am not seeing any relation of that kind i missing anything..may be in next post i will include the price of booking a ship which might tell the actual demand of ships....guess that in turn should reflect the economic activity

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

No Visibility

Was observing PSTL for a very long time and i did see it stayed in around 20 for some time before getting settled at around 27 to 28 . Coming to the potential for this stock i believe this is not the real value which its holding as of now ,it will be much more than current MP. Though i am new to this field from some understanding of finance i can see that total market cap of this company is around 80 crores and now they are rasing funds of the size of 500 Crore ( i am missing anything) .company is making some plans to improve its business after some stuff happened late last year .
If you look at the EPS of the company right now its negative due to write downs made due to business but when u look for the future of this company i strongly believe it can deliver some Good Return when investors show some intrest in it

Right now its my underdog

Monday, September 14, 2009

Where is market heading ?

Off late am seeing many people posting questions to so called experts about the direction
in which market is heading , i believe am also one among them if given a chance. am not here to
undermine their abilities am just wondering where all did these experts go when market fared badly and what reco's they gave to investors about the direction
which made me believe that all are not correct .
Coming to the market here is the expert
(in making ..till will tell )I believe this is short term bull market which might end some where around 17500 to 18000
until unless fundamentals improve this will not get past that mark
Although speculators are going for a kill whenever they had the opportunity
but this trading range is not good for long term investors, also long term investors
should buy stocks when everyone is selling them and should sell when every one buys

will take u through EPS,P/E and historical values,Fundamentals in my analysis

...Will keep more of my analysis in later posts

Test Blog

This is my first post to test the blog look...